The divide between Power 5 (P5) programs and mid-major teams has became impossible to ignore. It’s not just speculation anymore—as the data speaks for itself. Out of 23 first-round matchups between Power 5 teams and lesser-seeded mid-majors, only three resulted in upsets. That’s an 87% success rate for P5 schools, who won those games by an average of 17 points. In 63 Games we saw 4% of the brackets pick 28 out of 32 games correctly in the first round and the lowest total bonus point scores across the board in over a decade. Both a result of more conservative brackets earning out in the first round.
This trend didn’t just emerge during March Madness; it’s been here all season. In non-conference play, Power 5 teams won 90% of games against mid-majors, with an average margin of victory nearing 20 points per game. So, when the tournament arrived, the first round replicated: P5 teams asserted their dominance, leaving most mid-majors struggling to compete.
The divide is no accident. The introduction of NIL deals and updated transfer rules has amplified the advantages already enjoyed by P5 programs. These changes have allowed the top-tier schools to attract and retain elite talent, leaving mid-majors scrambling for scraps. The result? A basketball landscape that increasingly favors the rich and powerful, while the charm of the “Cinderella story” continues to fade.
And its fair if you think I’m a mid major guy… because I am… and its fair if I’m getting too “Get off my lawn” for you… and its fair to assume I’m bald… because I am… but give me just a few seconds of your mindshare.. if this trend persists, we might be watching a sport that slowly loses one of its defining features—the unpredictability, the magic of the underdog, and the thrill of true competition. While Power 5 dominance may be great for their fanbases, it raises a tough question: What happens to the heart of college basketball when the divide becomes insurmountable? Vanderbilt and Northwestern will be the only P5 Cinderella team left worthy of being a Cinderella.